But as the scale of the attack became clearer, with thousands of Ukrainian troops advancing as far as six miles into Russia, President Vladimir Putin was quick to contain the fallout.
In a televised meeting with the acting head of the Kursk region, Alexey Smirnov, on Thursday, Putin urged the governor to show “courage and calm” and assured civilians fleeing the fighting that help was on the way.
The meeting, said the US think tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), was aimed at reassuring the Russians that the situation was under control to avoid “significant internal discontent”.
Raids such as the one launched by Ukraine this week have the potential to damage Putin’s prestige and power — and the Kremlin’s muddled response is a sign it is worried.
“Substantial Ukrainian advances inside Russia would be a strategic blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decade-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security and geopolitical revitalization,” ISW said.
Ukraine’s attack catches Russia off guard
A Russian military video showing a Ukrainian tank during an attack in Russia’s Kursk region in August. Anatolia through the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukraine’s motive for the attack, which apparently took Russian forces by surprise, remains unclear, with Kiev not publicly commenting on the operation.
This has led to sharp criticism of the Kremlin from ultranationalist bloggers, who have questioned why the Russian military was so unprepared and criticized the chaotic efforts to evacuate civilians.
Military analysts believe Ukraine is seeking to deliver an embarrassing blow to Putin by bringing the war home for ordinary Russians.
Ukraine may also seek to divert Russian troops from the front line in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, which has been the scene of fierce fighting in recent months. It also appears intent on showing its Western backers that it can “flip the script” and carry out bold operations after recent setbacks, said Bryden Spurling, an analyst at the Rand Corporation.
Callum Fraser, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said Putin’s strongman image is based on his ability to keep Russians safe.
“Putin needs to demonstrate that Russia’s borders are secure and that ultimately, people inside Russia will not be greatly affected by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine,” he told Business Insider.
“It just starts to affect people, yes [when they] become galvanized to do something about it, to secure their livelihoods and their property, and that may lead them to question whether Putin is the right man for the job.”
Putin has so far been able to avoid major internal turmoil from the two-year war – despite the heavy casualties it has inflicted on the Russian military.
The economic impact on ordinary Russians has not been as severe as some economists had predicted. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has tightly controlled media coverage of the war, and Putin has avoided having to impose unpopular military drafts by increasing conscription.
But the 2023 rebellion by the Russian mercenary group Wagner exposed Putin’s vulnerability to blowback from events in Ukraine.
The Russian government lost control of the city of Rostov to rebels protesting what they saw as Russia’s failed campaign, and mercenaries advanced on Moscow before the rebellion was put down.
Fraser said Wagner’s rebellion is likely to weigh heavily on Putin’s mind as he considers the potential fallout from the Kursk incursion.
He said the incursion is partly about “demonstrating to people inside Russia and the border regions that they are not as safe as they want to be, which could cause internal discontent.”
Putin’s failures to defend Russia, Spurling said, are “dangerous to his image and to those around him, and this in turn could destroy the cohesion and unity of his inner circle.”
Members of the WagnerGgroup sit on top of a tank on a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don in June 2024. STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images
A game for leverage in negotiations
There are doubts whether Ukraine’s already overstretched military can sustain the momentum of its Kursk incursion.
Ukraine is already scrambling to recruit enough troops to maintain its defensive positions on the front lines, and the high-risk attack on Russia has been met with an at best lukewarm response from Kiev’s most important international ally. , USA.
It is unclear, said Maxim Alyukov, a political sociologist at King’s College London, how long Ukraine will be able to hold on to the territory it has seized from Russia if the Kremlin launches a major operation to drive them out.
But with reports indicating that both sides in the war may be willing to consider peace negotiations, Ukraine may be gambling that by dealing a humiliating blow to Putin, it will be able to negotiate a deal from a position strong.
The operation, Alyukov said, is a “bold move” intended to send a message that Ukraine retains the capacity to harm Russia in new and unexpected ways.
But Ukraine will need to maintain momentum to seriously damage Putin’s power.